Romans 11

I’ve been looking at Romans 11 and I have some questions.

Rom 11:7  What then? Israel hath not obtained that which he seeketh for; but the election hath obtained it, and the rest were blinded 

I’m trying to understand this verse. Does “Israel” here mean:

1. Israel as a nation / majority (unrepentant and now cut off), and “election” means those who still are in covenant relationship with God (a.k.a. little flock)?

 Or

 2. Israel as a nation / majority (unrepentant and now cut off), and “election” means those who are NO LONGER in covenant relationship with God, but are now part of the Jew and Gentile in the body of Christ because they believed the same gospel as us concerning the cross?

I assume you think scenario 2 is the correct one. But if so, doesn’t that leave out the little flock, and also, doesn’t verse 29 mean that “the election” in verse 28 are “beloved” because of the fathers’ covenant with God, thus making the election part of the covenant?

Also, did not some people in Israel trust the kingdom gospel? Christ’s apostles did. So, does verse 32 speak about the nation or maybe Israel as a majority? Otherwise it doesn’t make sense to me if it means every individual in Israel.

Rom 11:31 For God hath concluded them all in unbelief, that he might have mercy upon all.

Wrong guess, I think scenario 1 is correct.  In the olive tree, verses 17 & 20 only “some” of the branches are broken off and they are those in Israel who were in “unbelief.”  So Israel as a nation is now concluded in unbelief.  They are now enemies of God, nationally, but at the same time, as God’s elect nation they are beloved for their father’s sake and so in the future God will fulfill his promises to them, and “all Israel will be saved.”  Since in verses 28 & 29 the pronoun “they” seem to be the same group I don’t think the “election” here is the believing remnant but still speaking nationally.